Supply Fundamentals Remain Tight Beneath the Surface
Pipes or Cargoes?
Balancing the Global Energy Grid
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ENERGY CONSULTANCY OF THE YEAR 2025
Publish Date:
July 1, 2026
Supply Fundamentals: Norwegian Pipelines & Global LNG
The UK’s underlying gas security relies heavily on Continental Shelf pipeline imports and global LNG imports.
- Norwegian Maintenance & Strike Risks: Norway remains the UK’s primary source of piped gas. Q3 typically coincides with planned summer maintenance across Norwegian offshore fields, which naturally tightens supply. There were threats of Norwegian offshore worker strikes scheduled for early June, though there’s no immediate expectation that oil & gas output would be affected. A close eye needs to be kept on any ‘unplanned’ outages, which can cause price spikes.
- European Storage Cushions: Europe entered the spring with relatively stable gas storage positions following strategic inventory builds, preventing a runaway price spike. However, the lack of Qatari volumes means the rate of injection ahead of the Winter 2026/27 season is slower than usual, keeping seasonal forward prices elevated. We must also keep an eye on LNG being diverted to Asia, adding to the winter premium prices.
- Russia/Europe legacy: The structural loss of Russian pipeline gas keeps a persistent risk premium in European and UK gas prices, preventing a return to pre‑crisis levels.
Energy Market Report Q3 2026
How Can Advantage Help?
Our sustainability department continue offer an ever-increasing range of products and technology aimed at reducing energy consumption and associated costs as well as driving down carbon emissions.
We will of course continue to keep you updated around these initiatives, but please do reach out to your designated point of contact should you wish to explore your options in this regard.
In terms of procurement, we will of course continue to monitor markets with a view to helping customers navigate the unprecedented circumstances and ascertain when constitutes the best time to seek a contract extension.
Our popular flexible procurement options continue to be an option for an increasing number of clients on either a standalone basis or as part of a grouped basket. This often facilitates access today/month ahead trading markets which have proved to be particularly beneficial to many clients over the winter period.
BULLISH IN Q3
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IRAN WAR AND GEOPOLITICAL FALLOUT
COMPETITION FOR LNG
LOW EUROPEAN STORAGE
POLITICAL & ECONOMIC INSTABILITY AND UNCERTAINTY
RUSSIA/UKRAINE WAR
RANGEBOUND IN Q3
VOLITILITY & UNCERTAINTY
CARBON
STARMER RESIGNATION
BEARISH IN Q3
US-IRAN DEAL
RE-OPENING STRAIT OF HORMUZ
MILD SUMMER START
WHOLESALE FUTURES PRICES - ‘28 & BEYOND
TRUMP’S TARIFFS
GOVERNMENT RESHUFFLE
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