Middle East Market Update: 10th March 2026

Market Update:

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• Monday’s prices closed higher than Friday, although lower than the early bullishness when markets opened..
• Iran said that the oil blockade will continue until attacks end.
• Overnight, Donald Trump responded by saying that he’ll hit Iran harder if it blocks oil.
• The U.S. President also said that he predicted the war could end soon, easing concerns about prolonged disruptions to global oil supplies.
• Following Donald Trump’s comments, oil prices fell back under $100/bbl and at the time of writing, sit around $91.9/bbl.
• Wholesale gas & power prices have also taken a sizeable downwards direction.
• Sum-26 gas has dropped to around 115p/T, having closed at over 134p/T on Monday.
• Sum-26 power is trading in the region of £94.7/MWh, having closed at over £102/MWh.

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NATURAL GAS:

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Gas prices have gapped down strongly this morning with contracts coming under pressure from comments from President Trump who has claimed the Iran war will end “very soon” which seemed to ease views that the war will drag out into the long term.
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NBP front month Apr-26 is currently trading at 127p/therm after closing at 140p/therm yesterday. The TTF contract has shown similar losses, down €6/MWh from Monday’s closing price.
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It’s worth noting that gas production facilities and the Strait of Hormuz remain closed for energy transportation meaning that supply is still likely to remain limited for the coming weeks as the bottle neck looks to ease following any ceasefire or end to the conflict.
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From a demand perspective, temperatures across Europe will remain above seasonal norm until Friday. Germany is set to average 5°C above seasonal which is bringing heating demand lower. Wind generation will increase from today bringing a more bearish supply picture to the region.
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European storage level is sat at 29% with withdrawal rates slowing recently due to the mild temperatures. Looking at the storage aggregation chart the withdrawal rate is noticeably slower towards the back end of February and into March.
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Brent Crude prices have fallen over $10/bbl during early trading with Trump’s comments seemingly reducing the risk to a prolonged supply risk for the commodity.

ELECTRICITY:
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Power prices across Europe have eased today, tracking European gas contracts lower as comments overnight seem to reduce the long term risk of the Iran conflict as President Trump said the war will end “very soon”.
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UK baseload front month April-26 contract has shed £8/MWh compared to the closing price with German baseload falling by €6/MWh. With poor renewable generation likely for the week the prompt position has favoured cheaper gas prices with gas remaining the alternative fuel to generate power.
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It is expected that wind and solar will remain poor across Germany today and most of tomorrow before increasing into the weekend. This should bring some relief to prompt prices as temperatures are set to remain above seasonal norm.
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The EUA carbon price posted gains on Monday, climbing €0.47 to close at €70.90, whilst the UK counterpart saw steep losses of £2.46/tonne.
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Brent Crude prices have fallen over $10/bbl during early trading with Trump’s comments seemingly reducing the risk to a prolonged supply risk for the commodity.
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Latest Price:
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Latest Gas & Power Annual Chart:

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