China-Taiwan Geopolitical Tensions

One of the key geopolitical events in early January involved parliamentary elections in Taiwan. Despite recent threats from China, many indicators pointed to the current “tense” status quo being maintained. Taiwan is the world’s largest producer of semiconductors, therefore global implications would include a potential technological crisis in addition to the economic climate being seriously adversely affected if military action does transpire.

China's president Xi Jinping insists that Taiwan is part of China, raising concerns about a possible attack to divert attention from domestic issues. Reports of top official purges add to the instability. Some expert’s predictions suggest Xi might lose some or all of his powers in an internal Communist Party revolt (reported by Rupert Jones – Observer).

A further conflict could impact global energy markets, but the extent remains uncertain. ICIS (Independent Commodity Intelligence Services) highlighted the China/Taiwan situation in a recent webinar. Below are slides summarising their perspective on this issue.

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